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WINTER FINCH FORECAST 2003-2004
by Ron Pittaway |
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Common Redpolls by Jean Iron |
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Many people have asked
for my annual prediction on winter finches. This fall and winter I
forecast a good flight of boreal winter finches to the south because
of the failure of most tree seed crops, except White Spruce, over a
large area of northern Ontario. I contacted sources in central and
northern Ontario who are knowledgeable about tree seed crops. Based
on their information and my own observations, here are my
predictions for seeing winter finches in traditional spots such as
Algonquin Park (one of the best places in the world to see them) and
at bird feeders in southern Ontario. I also comment on a few other
species, such as Red-breasted Nuthatch, which often move in
association with winter finches. |
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TREE SEED CROPS |
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(1) Conifers: Except
for an excellent crop on spruces, most conifers have poor cone
crops. There are local good cone crops on White Pine around North
Bay and in the Upper Ottawa Valley. There is a good crop of cones on
White Cedar, but it usually is not a key species for winter finches.
Eastern Hemlock has retained cones from last year, which may hold
some seeds. |
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(2) Hardwoods/Deciduous: The White Birch seed crop is
poor in most areas, but there are pockets with moderate crops. A
large outbreak of Birch Leaf Skeletonizer has reduced seed quantity
and quality over much of central Ontario and in northern Ontario
from Lake Nipigon to the Quebec border. Good crops of American and
Showy Mountain-ash berries are reported in northeastern Ontario, but
there are poor crops in some northern areas. |
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PINE GROSBEAK: Movements of Pine Grosbeaks are keyed
to mountain-ash berries. They irrupt into southern Ontario when
mountain-ash berries are in low supply in the boreal forest. Last
year was an excellent year for mountain-ash berries and Pine
Grosbeaks stayed in the north. This year the crop is good in some
areas and poor in others so we can expect a moderate flight of Pine
Grosbeaks into Algonquin Park and probably into southern Ontario.
Watch for them on European Mountain-ash (rowan berries) in southern
Ontario, which has a moderate crop of berries if the robins and
starlings leave any. Pine Grosbeaks also feed on ornamental crab
apple seeds, which are commonly planted in urban areas. At bird
feeders, Pine Grosbeaks prefer sunflower seeds. |
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PURPLE FINCH: Already
a few have been seen migrating south through southern Ontario in
September. I expect that most will migrate out of Ontario into the
United States in October and November because tree seed crops are
generally poor across most of northern Ontario. Don't expect to see
Purple Finches in Algonquin Park this winter. A few may winter at
feeders in southern Ontario. Purple Finches have declined in recent
years. |
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RED CROSSBILL: Two main forms occur in Ontario. One is
adapted to hemlock and the other to pines. The hemlock form (sitkensis)
has a small bill, even smaller than White-winged Crossbill. Hemlock
cone crops are poor this year (some cones retained from last year)
so sitkensis Red Crossbills are not expected this winter. In most
areas, White Pine and Red Pine cone crops are poor. However, there
are pockets of good cone crops on White Pine around North Bay and
the Upper Ottawa Valley and in Simcoe County. Red Pine also has some
locally good crops. Watch for a few Red Crossbills where there are
pine cones. |
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WHITE-WINGED CROSSBILL: Currently
there are no White-winged Crossbills in Algonquin Park. However,
this winter they should be widespread in small numbers across the
north and in Algonquin Park because of big cone crops on spruce. We
also may see White-winged Crossbills in southern Ontario attracted
to the big cone crops on spruces. Many ornamental spruces in Toronto
are bending over with a heavy load of cones. |
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COMMON and HOARY REDPOLLS: I expect a good flight of
redpolls. In winter redpolls are keyed to birch seeds. The White
Birch seed crop is poor in many northern areas. Watch for redpolls
in weedy fields and at bird feeders. They love nyger (niger) seeds
in silo feeders. Flocks of Common Redpolls always bring the chance
of seeing Hoary Redpolls. |
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PINE SISKIN: Expect
to see many siskins migrating south out of Ontario in October and
November because most conifers, except spruce, have poor cone crops.
However, the excellent spruce cone crop should hold some siskins in
places such as Algonquin Park for the winter. |
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EVENING GROSBEAK: Recently this species has become
more of a mystery bird. Once regular in winter at feeders in
southern Ontario, its numbers seem to be declining. I saw only one
pair this July in Haliburton County, where 10 - 20 years ago I often
saw them in summer. Because seed crops are generally poor across the
north, I expect a southward movement at the usual time in late
November and early December. A few should winter in Algonquin Park
and visit feeders in southern Ontario. |
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AMERICAN GOLDFINCH: Large
numbers are currently migrating in southern Ontario. This is another
indication of poor seed crops in central and northern Ontario. |
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RED-BREASTED NUTHATCH: They are migrating south now. I
expect some to stay north this winter because of heavy cone crops on
spruce in central and northern Ontario. In Algonquin Park, there is
a strong correlation in numbers (both high and low) between
Red-breasted Nuthatches and White-winged Crossbills. Pine Siskin
numbers are moderately correlated with numbers of Red-breasted
Nuthatches. |
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BOHEMIAN WAXWING: Like Pine Grosbeaks, Bohemian
Waxwings are keyed to mountain-ash berries in the boreal forest.
Because the mountain-ash berry crop is poor in some areas, expect a
small flight of Bohemians into traditional areas such as Ottawa and
Peterborough and probably elsewhere. |
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BLUE JAY: My
sources tell me that there has been a widespread failure of Red Oak
acorns and acorns on other oaks in the northeast. The large numbers
of Blue Jays moving south in September along the shorelines of Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie indicate that acorn, beechnut and many other
seed crops are poor in Ontario. This is another indicator that a
flight of winter finches is coming. |
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: For information on tree seed crops,
I wish to thank Dennis Barry in Durham Region and Haliburton County,
Al Foley (MNR) in Simcoe County, Peter Hynard (MNR) in Haliburton
County, Fred Pinto (MNR) in Sudbury District, Taylor Scarr (MNR) in
Sault Ste Marie, Ron Tozer in Algonquin Park, Mike Turner (MNR) in
Haliburton County, and Mike Walsh (MNR) in Muskoka/Parry Sound. |
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Happy
winter finch watching, |
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Ron Pittaway |
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8 October 2003 |
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Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden and Toronto, Ontario,
E-mail: jeaniron@sympatico.ca |
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