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WINTER FINCH FORECAST 2008-2009
by Ron Pittaway |
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Common Redpoll at Norland, Ontario by Jean Iron |
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GENERAL
FORECAST: This
winter's theme is where will crossbills go and will they irrupt
south? Both species wandered widely this summer. Cone crops are poor
in the Atlantic Provinces and fair to moderate in Western Canada. In
Ontario, spruce crops are fair to good west and east of Lake
Superior and in central Ontario such as Algonquin Park, but cone
abundance diminishes rapidly northwards into the boreal forest.
White pine (Ontario's provincial tree) has heavy cone crops in most
areas. The hemlock crop is poor in central Ontario. The white birch
crop is fair to good west and east of Lake Superior to Lake Ontario,
but poor in the boreal forest. The mountain-ash (rowan berry) crop
is excellent in Ontario and Western Canada, but poor in the Atlantic
Provinces. Individual finch forecasts below apply mainly to Ontario,
but adjacent provinces and states may find the forecast of interest.
I also comment on three irruptive passerines and two boreal forest
raptors. |
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INDIVIDUAL FINCH
FORECASTS |
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PINE GROSBEAK: A
mountain-ash berry specialist in winter, Pine Grosbeaks will stay
north of most birders this winter because mountain-ash berries are
abundant in northern Ontario. A few normally get south to Algonquin
Park, but they are unlikely farther south. |
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PURPLE FINCH: This
finch stays in the north only when most tree species have heavy seed
crops. This fall most Purple Finches will migrate south out of the
province because overall tree seed crops are too low. A very few may
winter in southern Ontario. |
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RED CROSSBILL: This
crossbill comprises nine ecotypes in North America; each has cone(s)
preferences related to bill size and shape. The Types are difficult
to identify in the field. Types 2 and 3 and probably 4 occur in
Ontario. The white pine Type 2 is apparently the most frequently
encountered Red Crossbill in the province (Simard 2007 in Atlas of
Breeding Birds of Ontario). Since white pine has abundant crops in
most areas, expect Type 2s to be widespread in small numbers.
Hemlock Type 3 (subspecies sitkensis of AOU Check-list 1957) prefers
the small cones of hemlock and white spruce when bumper in Ontario.
Type 3s should be absent from the province this winter because the
hemlock crop is poor and the white spruce crop is average. Other
Types are possible this winter given the bumper white pine cone crop
and good crop on red pine. The Red Crossbill complex very much needs
further study. |
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WHITE-WINGED
CROSSBILL: This
crossbill wandered widely this past summer searching for extensive
spruce cone crops. Reports came from Alaska, Yukon, Hudson Bay
Lowlands, Ontario, Quebec and many northern states such as Michigan
and New York. Most kept moving but some stopped and their singing
suggested nesting but spruce cone crops are generally not large
enough in most areas to support major nestings. The White-winged
Crossbill specializes on the small soft cones of black and white
spruces and hemlock when bumper in Ontario. This winter they should
be widespread in small numbers in traditional areas such as
Algonquin Park. However, spruce cone crops are generally low in most
of Canada and as seed supplies are exhausted this fall and winter so
a moderate southward irruption is probable, perhaps extending south
into the central United States. Watch for them on ornamental spruces
and European larch. |
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COMMON and HOARY
REDPOLLS: The
Common Redpoll is a white birch seed specialist in the boreal forest
in winter. White birch crops are poor in the northern two-thirds of
the boreal forest, but seed abundance increases southward. In
central Ontario, such as Algonquin Park, crops on white and yellow
birches range from fair to good. It is uncertain whether the birch
crop is large enough to stop the southward movement in central
Ontario about latitude 45 degrees. Some redpolls, including a few
Hoarys, may get south to Lake Ontario if birch seed supplies run
low. |
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PINE SISKIN: A
conifer seed specialist in winter, most siskins should leave the
province this fall because the spruce cone crop is poor in the
boreal forest. It is uncertain whether the huge white pine seed crop
will keep some siskins in central and northern Ontario this winter. |
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EVENING
GROSBEAK: A
conifer and hardwood seed generalist in winter, Evening Grosbeaks
should make a small southward movement this winter because food
supplies are probably sufficient in the north. Older birders
remember the 1970s when the Evening Grosbeak was a common feeder
bird. Their memory is based on the greatly inflated numbers 30 years
ago in Eastern Canada due to huge outbreaks of spruce budworm. The
last Algonquin Christmas Bird Count to have high numbers of Evening
Grosbeaks was in 1984 with 1474 individuals, which was the North
American CBC record that year. A significant decline in grosbeak
numbers began in the mid-1980s because the size of annual budworm
outbreaks decreased. Ontario's breeding population is currently
probably stable, subject to periodic fluctuations in spruce budworm
(Hoar 2007 in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario). |
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THREE IRRUPTIVE
PASSERINES |
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RED-BREASTED
NUTHATCH: Movements
of this nuthatch are linked to cone crop abundance, particularly
spruce, white pine and balsam fir in Ontario. Good numbers of
Red-breasted Nuthatches should winter in Ontario this year feeding
on the bumper white pine seed crop and good spruce/fir crops in many
areas such as Algonquin Park. |
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BOHEMIAN
WAXWING: Like the
Pine Grosbeak, this waxwing is a mountain-ash berry specialist in
winter. Mountain-ash crops are excellent across northern Ontario
(bumper around Lake Superior) so very few Bohemians will wander out
of the boreal forest this winter. Some may get south into
traditional wintering areas of central Ontario such as Orillia,
Peterborough and Ottawa where European mountain-ash berries are in
good supply. |
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BLUE JAY: Good
numbers of jays will winter in central Ontario because the red oak
acorn crop is good and beechnut crop is fair in central Ontario.
Many other fruits and berries are abundant. Therefore this fall's
flight should be average or smaller along the shorelines of Lakes
Ontario and Erie. |
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BOREAL RAPTORS |
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NORTHERN GOSHAWK: A
small flight is possible this fall because high snowshoe hare
populations have declined in much of northern Ontario. However,
grouse numbers (Ruffed, Spruce, Sharp-tailed) are generally good so
they may buffer the decline in hares. |
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BOREAL
OWL: Small
mammal populations have crashed across northern and central Ontario.
In Quebec, Pascal Cote of Observatoire d'oiseaux de Tadoussac
expects a flight of Boreal Owls this fall and winter following their
4 year cycle linked to red-backed voles. Southern Ontario may get
Boreal Owls and other northern forest owls this winter. |
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WHERE TO SEE
FINCHES: A
winter trip to Algonquin Park is a birding adventure. The park is a
mix of boreal and hardwood habitats only a three hour drive north of
Toronto. Kilometre distances are marked from the west entrance.
Watch carefully for crossbills and other finches in early morning
eating road salt and sand. Two excellent birding spots are the
Spruce Bog Trail at km 42.5 and the gate area on the Opeongo Road
about 4 km north from km 46 on the highway. Watch and listen for
finches, Gray Jay, Boreal Chickadee, Spruce Grouse and Black-backed
Woodpecker. The Visitor Centre and restaurant at km 43 are open only
on weekends in winter. An observation deck overlooks a spectacular
bog and black spruce forest. The feeders attract Evening Grosbeak,
Pine Grosbeak, Common Redpoll and other finches depending on the
winter. Gray Jays frequent the suet feeder and sometimes a pine
marten or fisher goes to the suet. Eastern Canadian Wolves (Canis
lycaon) are seen occasionally from the observation deck feeding on
road-killed moose put out by park staff. Arrangements can be made to
view feeders on weekdays. For information call the Visitor Centre
at 613-637-2828. |
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: I
thank staff of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR) and
birders whose reports allow me to make annual forecasts: Dennis
Barry (Durham Region), Ken Corston (OMNR Moosonee), Pascal Cote (Tadoussac,
Quebec), Shirley Davidson (OMNR Minden), Bruce Di Labio (Ottawa to
Moosonee), Carrolle Eady (Dryden), Cameron Eckert (Yukon), Bruce
Falls (Brodie Club, Toronto), Brian Fox (OMNR), Marcel Gahbauer
(Alberta), Michel Gosselin (Canadian Museum of Nature), Skye Haas
(Michigan), Charity Hendry (Ontario Tree Seed Plant), Leo Heyens (OMNR
Kenora), Tyler Hoar (Laurentians and Northeastern Quebec), Peter
Hynard (Haliburton County), Jean Iron (Northeastern Ontario/James
Bay), Christine Kerrigan and Peter Nevin (Parry Sound District),
Richard Pope (Lake Superior), Bruce Mactavish (Newfoundland), Erwin
Meissner (West Sudbury District), Scott McPherson (OMNR), Brian
Naylor (OMNR North Bay), Larry Neily (Ottawa), Stephen O'Donnell
(Parry Sound District), Fred Pinto (OMNR), Betsy Potter (Wilson, New
York), Gord Ross (OMNR Moosonee), Rick Salmon (OMNR Nipigon), Don
Sutherland (OMNR), Eve Ticknor (Ottawa), Ron Tozer (Algonquin Park),
Declan Troy (Alaska), Mike Turner (OMNR Minden), Stan Vasiliauskas (OMNR),
Mike Walsh (OMNR Muskoka/Parry Sound), Ben Walters (Northeastern
Ontario), Alan Wormington (Point Pelee), Matt Young whose posts on
New York State listservs were informative, and Kirk Zufelt (Sault
Ste Marie). I thank Ron Tozer for ongoing discussions on winter
finches and Jean Iron for proofing the forecast. |
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ATLAS OF
BREEDING BIRDS OF ONTARIO 2007: The
recently published Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario 2007 has
detailed peer-reviewed information and maps on boreal winter
finches. I highly recommend it. |
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http://www.birdsontario.org/atlas/index.jsp |
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Ron Pittaway
Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden and Toronto, Ontario, 18 September 2008
E-mail: jeaniron@sympatico.ca |
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